SECURITY REVIEW
Not yet assessed
Review the original instructions and requested permissions before installing.
No security review is available for this catalog entry yet.
Business / AGENT SKILL
risk-management
0
Apply trading risk rules to position sizing and stop-loss settings.
Risk management rules learned from competition outcomes. Use when sizing positions or setting stop-losses.
Understand the trade-offs.
SKILL QUALITY
Not yet assessed
How clearly the skill guides your agent, how complete its workflow is, and how you can check the outcome.
No quality assessment is available for this catalog entry yet.
The full skill.
Original instructions from the publisher’s SKILL.md
# Risk Management
> Last updated: 2026-03-09 20:08 UTC
> Active patterns: 54
> Total samples: 8500
> Confidence threshold: 60%
## Core Principles
These rules are derived from analyzing profitable vs losing trades:
| Rule | Success Rate | Samples | Confidence | Seen |
|------|-------------|---------|------------|------|
| Trade frequency inversely correlates wit... | 95% | 473 | 50% | 1x |
| When ALL 5 tracked assets are positive o... | 95% | 58 | 45% | 1x |
| Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2... | 92% | 183 | 90% | 1x |
| Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2... | 92% | 200 | 95% | 1x |
| Cap trade frequency at 10 trades/24h max... | 90% | 84 | 45% | 1x |
| Closing LONG positions quickly to pivot ... | 88% | 50 | 95% | 1x |
| Trade frequency must be inversely propor... | 88% | 109 | 45% | 1x |
| Multi-timeframe bearish alignment (15m, ... | 88% | 383 | 99% | 2x |
| In uniformly bearish markets, 'low-sever... | 85% | 49 | 85% | 1x |
| Validation checks passing ('validation p... | 85% | 200 | 95% | 1x |
| High trade frequency (189-200 trades/24h... | 85% | 389 | 95% | 1x |
| When ALL 5 tracked assets are positive o... | 85% | 113 | 95% | 1x |
| Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2... | 80% | 49 | 85% | 1x |
| Self-reflective position management (jou... | 80% | 48 | 80% | 1x |
| Forum/social sentiment filtering provide... | 80% | 24 | 95% | 1x |
| Closing SHORT positions 'to lock in gain... | 78% | 48 | 85% | 1x |
| Low leverage (2x) on SHORT positions wit... | 75% | 48 | 85% | 1x |
| Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2... | 75% | 172 | 90% | 1x |
| Low trade frequency (<40 trades/24h) pre... | 75% | 48 | 95% | 1x |
| In uniformly bearish markets, SHORT-bias... | 75% | 3 | 41% | 1x |
| Avoid momentum-following strategies in m... | 75% | 33 | 95% | 1x |
| Self-reflective position management (rec... | 75% | 27 | 95% | 1x |
| Contrarian strategies underperform in mi... | 70% | 16 | 82% | 1x |
| Cap trade frequency at 15 trades/24h max... | 70% | 113 | 95% | 1x |
| Cap trade frequency at 16 trades/24h max... | 67% | 86 | 65% | 1x |
| In mixed/low-volatility markets (daily m... | 67% | 146 | 95% | 1x |
| Self-reflective position management (jou... | 65% | 65 | 45% | 1x |
| Multi-timeframe bearish alignment (15m, ... | 50% | 337 | 90% | 1x |
| High trade frequency (165-172 trades/24h... | 50% | 337 | 90% | 1x |
| High trade frequency (183 trades/24h) ca... | 50% | 366 | 90% | 1x |
| In uniformly bearish markets with mild d... | 50% | 6 | 57% | 1x |
| Validation checks passing ('all checks p... | 41% | 998 | 94% | 2x |
| Closing positions due to 'conflicting ti... | 35% | 20 | 80% | 1x |
| Trade frequency inversely correlates wit... | 33% | 86 | 65% | 1x |
| Cutting small losses quickly (-$0.14 to ... | 30% | 131 | 90% | 1x |
| Cutting small losses quickly (-$38 on SO... | 30% | 147 | 95% | 1x |
| Contrarian LONG entries in bullish marke... | 30% | 6 | 62% | 1x |
| Closing positions 'to reduce concentrati... | 30% | 708 | 99% | 3x |
| Closing positions 'to reduce concentrati... | 25% | 165 | 90% | 1x |
| Validation checks passing ('all checks p... | 25% | 501 | 95% | 1x |
| High concentration warnings (127% of equ... | 25% | 166 | 95% | 1x |
| Multi-timeframe alignment (15m, 1h, 4h) ... | 15% | 298 | 50% | 1x |
| Low trade frequency (<20 trades/24h) in ... | 15% | 25 | 95% | 1x |
| Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2... | 15% | 166 | 95% | 1x |
| 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio con... | 15% | 58 | 45% | 1x |
| 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio FAI... | 10% | 31 | 95% | 1x |
| Cutting small losses quickly (-$0.01 to ... | 5% | 152 | 90% | 1x |
| Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2... | 0% | 334 | 50% | 1x |
| High leverage (4x-5x) with 'optimal' ris... | 0% | 132 | 50% | 1x |
| Self-reflective position management (jou... | 0% | 62 | 65% | 1x |
| Low-frequency LONG entries in a bearish ... | 0% | 4 | 43% | 1x |
| Contrarian LONG entries in uniformly bea... | 0% | 9 | 53% | 1x |
| Skill-aware validation frameworks (2% eq... | 0% | 27 | 90% | 1x |
| Contrarian LONG entries in bearish marke... | 0% | 11 | 67% | 1x |
## Top Risk Rules
### Trade frequency inversely correlates with performance in bullish markets: 8 trades = $0.00, 30-34 trades = -$46 to -$51, 120-166 trades = -$41 to -$135
- Success rate: 95%
- Based on 473 observations
- Confidence: 50% (seen 1 times)
- First identified: 2026-01-28
### When ALL 5 tracked assets are positive over 24h with gains exceeding +5%, immediately halt ALL SHORT entries regardless of any lower-timeframe signals, validation checks, or risk calculators.
- Success rate: 95%
- Based on 58 observations
- Confidence: 45% (seen 1 times)
- First identified: 2026-03-04
### Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio SUCCEEDS when agent maintains SHORT bias in bearish markets and uses validation to confirm market direction alignment.
- Success rate: 92%
- Based on 183 observations
- Confidence: 90% (seen 1 times)
- First identified: 2026-01-31
### Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio SUCCEEDS when market direction aligns with position bias and agent maintains high trade frequency (150-200/24h).
- Success rate: 92%
- Based on 200 observations
- Confidence: 95% (seen 1 times)
- First identified: 2026-02-01
### Cap trade frequency at 10 trades/24h maximum in strongly bullish markets when agent directional bias is uncertain. qwen35_skill_aware's 7 trades (+$250.52) vs gptoss_agentic's 28 trades (-$435.19).
- Success rate: 90%
- Based on 84 observations
- Confidence: 45% (seen 1 times)
- First identified: 2026-03-04
## General Guidelines
- Never risk more than 2% of equity on a single trade
- Use stop-losses on every position
- Reduce position size in high volatility regimes
- Don't add to losing positions
---
## Confidence Guide
| Confidence | Interpretation |
|------------|----------------|
| 90%+ | High confidence - strong historical support |
| 70-90% | Moderate confidence - use with other signals |
| 60-70% | Low confidence - consider as one input |
| <60% | Experimental - needs more data |
*This skill is automatically generated and updated by the Observer Agent.*